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I read an interesting post over a Fred Wilson’s AVC called “The Word Bubble” in which Fred states that he has consciously avoided using the word bubble in his posts over the last year. I’ve not been so restricted in my postings (See my post on Groupon and Google from last fall). I think we’re definitely in a bubble . I also think we’re only about halfway through the upswing. I think there’s lot of money to made in Tech Start ups over the next year or two, but I also think the valuations have far outpaced the fundamentals (see Twitter or Groupon). I encourage you to read Fred’s post as he’s about as bright as they come in Tech VC (plus he writes a lot of informative posts about almost everything related to start ups, Tech, and VC).

The salient point in his current post is this:

I am equally sure that we are in the glass is half full part of the cycle. Investors are focusing on the upside and ignoring the downside. That part of the investment cycle lasts for a while and then things change and investors focus on the downside and ignore the upside. Markets are defined by greed and fear. We are in the greed mode right now. – Fred Wilson

Good Talk,
Tom

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